Hot and cold Toto numbers: what frequency can and can't tell you
TotoLab colours numbers hot or cold by how often they have been drawn. It is a popular way to pick numbers — so it is worth being clear about what the data actually shows. We tested 685 real draws.
The most and least drawn numbers since 2020
Each number is expected to appear in about 83.9 of the 685 draws (6 of 49 numbers are drawn each time). Here is how far the extremes drift from that:
10 most drawn
| Number | Times drawn | % of draws |
|---|---|---|
15 | 102 | 14.9% |
37 | 101 | 14.7% |
10 | 97 | 14.2% |
49 | 97 | 14.2% |
12 | 96 | 14.0% |
28 | 96 | 14.0% |
22 | 95 | 13.9% |
1 | 94 | 13.7% |
8 | 94 | 13.7% |
35 | 94 | 13.7% |
10 least drawn
| Number | Times drawn | % of draws |
|---|---|---|
47 | 65 | 9.5% |
29 | 68 | 9.9% |
45 | 70 | 10.2% |
25 | 70 | 10.2% |
21 | 72 | 10.5% |
14 | 72 | 10.5% |
41 | 74 | 10.8% |
20 | 75 | 10.9% |
36 | 77 | 11.2% |
19 | 78 | 11.4% |
Main numbers only; the additional number is not counted. Ties are ordered by number.
Test 1: is any number really favoured?
A gap between 65 and 102 appearances looks large, but random draws always produce gaps like this. The standard way to check is a chi-square test, which asks whether the spread of frequencies is bigger than chance would produce.
Result: chi-square = 44.1 with 48 degrees of freedom, p = 0.63. A p-value this high means the frequencies are entirely consistent with every number having an equal chance. The hottest and coldest numbers are what randomness looks like.
Test 2: do hot numbers stay hot?
If hot numbers had some real edge, the ten hottest numbers in one stretch of draws should keep turning up more often in the next stretch. We split the history into blocks of 50 draws, took the ten hottest and ten coldest numbers in each block, and counted how often they appeared in the following 50 draws.
Both groups land close to the 20.4% that any ten numbers would get by chance. Past frequency does not carry forward. Each draw is independent: the machine has no memory of which numbers came up last week.
So why does TotoLab show hot and cold numbers?
- Many players enjoy it. Choosing between hot and cold numbers is part of the fun, and it is better done with accurate data than guesswork.
- It is real, verified history. Every count comes from actual draw results, so you can check claims you see elsewhere.
- It helps spread your picks. Some players use frequency to make sure a wheel mixes different kinds of numbers rather than clustering birthdays (1–31).
One thing does have a practical effect: avoiding popular combinations. Numbers 1–31 are over-chosen because of birthdays. They are no less likely to be drawn, but if they win you are more likely to share a Group 1–4 prize. Choosing numbers above 31 does not raise your odds — it can only reduce how many people you split a prize with.
See results by year for frequency in each year, or read the odds guide.